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USD outlook for 2019 shifting rapidly
GBP / USD Expected Range: 1.2620 – 1.2710
In the space of a few weeks the outlook about Federal Reserve interest rates for 2019 has taken a huge u-turn with markets going from pricing in 3 interest rate hikes, to two and then zero for the year. Indeed, yesterday the conversation shifted one step further with some suggesting that interest rates could infact be cut by the Fed at the back end of the year. If this were to be the case 2019 could be a difficult year for the dollar and whilst there would still be a large gap between Fed and ECB rates that would still narrow especially if the ECB hiked rates themselves. Meanwhile in Washington the Democrats took charge of the House of Representatives where Nancy Pelosi was once again sworn in as speaker of the House. As a first step the Democrat controlled House voted to end the partial government shutdown in a futile move with the bill set to be vetoed by President Donald Trump. For Fed Chair enthusiasts as well today is exciting with Jerome Powell forming a reunion with previous heads Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke. Hopefully it will be better than the Inbetweeners reunion